Boo!

In view of the recent Osama bin Laden video, many Democrats have been forecasting gloom and doom for the election, as they are wont to do. Democrats' morbid desire to predict electoral defeat is a topic for another day, but I can just say for now that in this case, it's misguided. The bin Laden tape will either have no effect, or even give a slight nudge to Kerry.

As noted in the Times this morning, this isn't the type of thing for which people switch their votes. There is not an appreciable number of undecideds remaining, so the video will only serve to reinforce the partisans on each side. Bush supporters will think of 9-11 and rally to Bush, Kerry supporters will say that the only reason OBL is still around making tapes is because Bush hasn't caught him. Therefore, for the most part, it's a draw.

However, if someone stands to gain from this, it's Kerry. As noted by TNR's Noam Scheiber in an article I can't find a link to, Kerry has a tendency to gain in the polls when the election's focus is on national security. The reason for this is that it is Bush's default strong point, so when it's on the table, Kerry has an opportunity to chip away at it, while his own strong point, domestic issues, remains untouched. However, when the focus is on domestic issues, Bush can deride Kerry as a big-spending liberal, weakening Kerry's advantage and leaving Bush's untouched. This theory makes sense, seeing as how Kerry's biggest gains were after the DNC's military-themed convention, Kerry's anti-war speech at NYU, and the first debate, which was centered on national security. In keeping with this theory, Bush's biggest poll gains were after his Kerry-and-the-liberals-bashing RNC convention and the third debate, which centered on domestic issues.

Kerry and the Democrats shouldn't be concerned with bin Laden's foray into the election, because if anything, it reminds voters that on Bush's biggest strong point, he's all talk and no results. But I doubt it will have even this effect. The voters are set. From here on in, it's turnout, turnout, turnout.