The Kerry Coalition

Much has been said this election season concerning John Kerry's under-performance among traditional Democratic constituencies, namely women, blacks, and Jews.

The alarm concerning the first group, women, has been greatly exaggerated. The argument that Kerry's "losing women" is a misperception that dates back to the post-GOP convention days. At this time, Kerry was losing all sorts of voters, and women, being voters, were part of this. Also, this charge has been based on a series of anecdotes, rather than empirical evidence. News stories talking about a new cadre of "security moms" don't actually look at polls, but instead discuss Mrs. Jane Smith from Saginaw, Michigan, who thinks George W. Bush is the only one who can keep her children safe. When one actually looks at the polling data, it can be seen that the gender gap, while slightly diminished, is still very real.

Next is the loss of blacks. The overwhelming support of blacks has been essential to every Democratic presidential win since FDR, and their status as a minority requires their support to be just that: overwhelming. Therefore, there has been much ado about Kerry polling at 80% among blacks rather than 90%. Compared to the perception about women, this is a genuine loss. However, it should have been an expected one. The black community as a whole is more church-going than the community at large, so there is a natural response the GOP's increasing projection of social conservatism and religious piety. Also, the black community is more affluent than it was 40 years ago. The inherent opposition to inherited wealth cannot be any longer expected of at least the wealthier parts of the black community. The first generation of black millionaires is about to die.

Last but not least is Bush's increased support among the Jewish community. This is usually attributed to Bush's unflagging allegiance to a Sharon government that has been successful in defeating the intifada. Also, the idea of a "war on terror" has much more relevance in Israel than it does here. However, the percentage of Jewish voters who vote based on Israel policy alone is very small, not to mention that most Jews know that there is nothing anti-Israel about Kerry. Therefore, Jewish support for Kerry might be a little weak this time around, but it is by no means an abandonment of the Democratic Party. There is more to being a Jew in America than supporting Israel.

On the whole, while Kerry is in fact not polling as well among these groups as his predecessors, I do not think that this erosion is as much cause for concern as one might think. Those who are disturbed by Kerry's polling among these groups are lacking a grasp of a simple logic. Think about it: Kerry is polling similar to where Gore finished in 2000, even though Gore performed better among these groups. This means that these votes are being replaced by traditionally Republican voters, or from swing voters.

Whether they have been attracted by Kerry or scared off by Bush, this development is good for the party and for Kerry. From a policy standpoint, the Democratic Party for too long has lacked the elements of a true cross-section of the country, instead being a party of separate interests groups. And from an electoral standpoint, you're much better off polling at 50% among everyone than polling at 90% among certain groups and 35% among everyone else. Simply put, Kerry and the Democratic Party shouldn't have all their eggs in one basket.