A Nation of Cheeseheads
A few electoral analyses that I've seen now, including my preferred one at Slate, have identified Wisconsin as the state that can swing the election. Not being as familiarly acquanited with the Badger State as I'd like to be, I can't make a prediction as to which way it will go, although my continuing theory of latent Democratic voter strength through new registrations and casual voters energized by the last election make me hopeful for Sen. Kerry's prospects.
Regardless of which way it might swing, the election's shift to Wisconsin has prompted a few thoughts. The first is the outright ridiculousness of the electoral college. The very fact that at any point in the election we're reduced to one state, or even ten or so states, as the sole possessors of any importance on the eve of the election saps our democracy enormously.
Also, while only the most committed Deanocrats may remember this, Gov. Howard Dean focused the strength of his waning campaign on the isolated primary of the state of Wisconsin, hoping that a win would provide much-needed momentum. Once I recalled this, I realized that pretty much every candidate-related problem the Democrats have had this past election would have had their antithesis in Gov. Dean: message inconsistency, liberal voting records, or lack of strong critiques and counterattacks surely would not have even been issues.
With this in mind, it adds another reason not to look forward to Nov. 3 should the election not go Kerry's way, because the Democratic Party is going to have one hell of a round of "I told you so," and I'll be right in the center of it.
posted by Shaun at 1:15:00 AM
5 Comments:
I wasn't trying to slip it past anybody that Dean was crushed in Wisconsin. If anyone is aware of that fact, it's me :-)
But I do see your points about the counterfactual of Dean's nomination, and they are things I've considered. However, I feel as though there hasn't been much trouble applying the "liberal" and "wimpy" labels to Kerry, and Kerry's military experience has been torn to shreds, so how do these things make a difference?
On the other hand I believe it's worth pointing out that what Kerry started doing a month ago to turn things around--stronger Iraq critique, sharper contrasts--is what Dean was doing ten months ago, not to mention he had a strong record as an effective, moderate, and long-serving governor.
I won't contest your point on Wisconsin's enthusiasm for the ticket. We're going to win, Ryan.
John Edwards also would have had none of these problems - witih message inconsistency, liberal voting records, or, arguably, strong critiques [i figure you're talking about supporting the war on iraq at any point] - because Edwards has no experience.
I love you, John Edwards!
If only we had a Democratic governor in the primaries to vote for, someone who could excite those alienated from politics, and use the internet to transform the way elections work.
"the Democratic Party is going to have one hell of a round of "I told you so," and I'll be right in the center of it."
it's that infighting that got us to where we are today where we actually have to work to defeat bush
the fact that it's possible, if not likely, that we will not is the ultimate testament to this
the electoral college shouldn't even be an issue in the sense that we should be able to beat bush despite the horrible disservice it does to vote equality; the fact that we're worried about getting fucked by it again shows how far we've fallen in the last.. i don't know.. years and such
i'm not saying discussion and critical analysis of our party is bad, but there is a tension in the ranks that while sublimated by hate for bush in the final weeks of the election.. they will re-emerge; after all the hate's gotta go somewhere
It kinda reminds me of the movie Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, where indiana was forced to choose between believing that the gurl was in trouble, or believing his father that she was a nazi. If he gives into the demand of the nazi he's gonna be sorry but if he believes his father, he might be able to shoot everyone and make his usual heroic escape. But we as the audience don't konw...will he believe her or will he believe his father, will he believe her, will he believe his father? No one kowns..this is too much stress.
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